The “American Institute for the Study of War” (ISW), which operates in the United States and has been investigating Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine since the very beginning, has shared new information about the Russian-Ukrainian war in its latest published report. In the report shared by the Institute, the commanders of the Russian military groups in Ukraine are directly subordinate to the Russian President Vladimir Putin. That is why those commands do not act according to the orders of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu or Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov. Even the “American Institute of War Studies” claims that after the end of the first stage of the war of aggression carried out by Russia in Ukraine and called special military operations, Russian President Vladimir Putin took the command in Ukraine from Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov. From the given information, it is also noted that Putin receives the latest information on Ukraine directly from Alexander Lapin, the commander of the Central Military District, which controls the “Central” troop group, and Sergey Sruvik, the commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces. From the report shared by the “American Institute of War Studies”, it can be concluded that Russia is about to lose control over its war of aggression in Ukraine since the end of March. A few days ago, Russia’s statement regarding the reduction of active combat operations on the Ukrainian front, “everything is going according to plan”, it is clear that the control is not in the hands of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. From the shared information, it can be concluded that there are two important reasons behind the Russian side’s inability to achieve serious success in the Ukrainian war, despite the passage of more than 6 months. 1. Russian troops in Ukraine cannot be fully controlled. 2. Weapons and military equipment support given to Ukraine from the West. The first reason is already known, and this situation can be considered as one of the main factors working against Russia in this war. As for the second reason, there is a different approach. In other words, the Western countries show that they are not single-minded in supporting Ukraine. If we look at the progress of the processes, the picture may look like this. The United States and England support Ukraine. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is coming to Ukraine. He declares his support for Ukraine. But the support provided is not fully implemented. From the aid given, it can be felt that the support given to Ukraine was calculated to prolong the war. Other western countries are almost trying to play a double game between Russia and Ukraine. There are other reasons behind this. Although France, Germany, Italy and other states say that they support Ukraine, in practice this support is hardly felt. This creates a serious basis for prolonging the war. The prolongation of the war, in turn, accelerates the process of disintegration of Russia and erases Ukraine from the face of the earth.
Samir Humbatov,
head of Center the International Relations and Diplomatic Studies.