What awaits the future of the region and the world?
The distribution of a map showing the division of Russia into 17 parts by the US, followed by the telephone conversation of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Armenian Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Turkey In my opinion, it can be considered very important, especially at this moment, for him to clarify the questions regarding the telephone conversation between President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and give some positive messages.
If you carefully follow the processes and correctly analyze the events, you can see that the main goal of the West, especially the United States and Great Britain, is to completely eliminate Russia as the main actor in the redesigned world political system. On the other hand, by using the favorable conditions, Turkey’s goal is to fill the gap that is expected to emerge after Russia. That is why Turkey’s attempts to intensify the negotiation process with Armenia have been felt recently. Even the Secretary of the Security Council of Armenia, Armen Grigoryan, stated that in the future, the negotiations between the parties will be held in Turkey and Armenia, not in a third country(s), but in Turkey and Armenia. they are in serious competition not only in the Middle East or North Africa, but also in the South Caucasus, the Black Sea, the Balkans, and Central Asia. Taking into account the current conditions of the world, Turkey has taken a step in accordance with the state’s interests in the Ukraine issue, which is an indicator of its ability to skillfully take advantage of the existing conditions. Of course, the fact that Russia does not like these steps taken by Turkey is felt in every situation, but the current conditions force it to be tolerant to Turkey’s steps in some issues and not allow the situation to worsen.
It is clear from some processes that the West is not the only threat to Russia, which has been facing sanctions for almost 5 months and is experiencing the most difficult periods of its economy. At the end of April and beginning of May of this year, China’s state television CCTV broadcasted a divided map of Russia and the majority of Russian territories were under Chinese control. Of course, this map, published by China’s state television CCTV, does not correspond to Russian-Chinese cooperation at all. At the same time, this move shows that there is tension even between China and Russia, which have been allies for many years.
Therefore, Russia is trying to create a balance by keeping relations with Turkey normal. It is for this reason that Russia, like Ukraine, is trying to enable Turkey to contribute to the negotiation process both in Russia-Ukraine negotiations and in regional issues.
Another question arises here; Why do Western countries and China want to break up Russia?
Western countries, both because of their rich underground and surface resources, and if Russia disintegrates, several states will emerge in the region adjacent to China, which will create an opportunity for China’s encirclement policy. China’s interests in the disintegration of Russia are to seize large Russian territories, use its rich natural resources, and open a path to the North Pole.
If we take into account that the main goal of both sides is to divide Russia, then it is possible to say that a serious threat is ahead for Russia.
Of course, it should also be noted that Russia and China work together in some regional and international organizations, especially in the permanent membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the United Nations Security Council. It should not be forgotten that in the current situation, Russia is one of the countries with the largest number of nuclear warheads in the world, and from time to time the Kremlin administration states that they do not rule out its use if there is a threat to the state.
The fact that Russia is a serious threat in the strategic document covering the next 10 years, which was adopted at the NATO summit held in Madrid some time ago, gives us reason to say that there will be new tense processes ahead.
Samir Humbatov
Head of the Center for International Relations and Diplomatic Studies